Comments on 2020 Presidential Politics

Because the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries are the first contests for the Democratic and Republican parties’ nomination process, they receive outsized attention by the candidates and the news media. In fact, few delegates are at stake, but they provide a test of the candidates’ retail politics abilities and do not provide insurmountable financial barriers that the larger states often present. Despite the cold weather, reporters seem to enjoy covering these events, and defend them for the seriousness that the voters of these states consider their choices. As has been pointed out, though, the demographics of both states do not reflect the country at large, and the population of both states is largely white. Many question the role that these two states play in choosing the next President of the United States.

With no real contest taking place among the Republicans this year, the focus has been on the Democrats. Before the New Hampshire primary, four significant Democratic contenders,  Beto O'Rourke,  Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Julián Castro dropped out of the race. All four were attractive candidates and three are non-white. However, their polling numbers, financial difficulties, and, in the case of Kamala Harris, campaign management problems caused their departures, not the first two electoral contests. After New Hampshire, Andrew Yang dropped out.

More significant this year was the next primary, South Carolina. Arguably, the makeup of the Democratic Party in that state is also not representative of all Democrats. Approximately 60 percent of the Democratic electorate in that state is African-American. The South Carolina primary served to resurrect the candidacy of Joe Biden, whom many had written off, and propelled him to victory in many states on Super Tuesday.

This is a strange way to choose the Democratic nominee. Unless some development totally collapses Trump’s candidacy, he will almost certainly win South Carolina’s electoral votes in November. The Democrats in that state though appear to have had the largest voice in picking the Democratic nominee. It is still possible for Bernie Sanders to win the nomination, especially after his performance in California, but as of now, the odds favor Biden. The reason that they do is the results of the South Carolina primary.

As far as the general election goes, Trump will have the support of an enthusiastic base, but he needs more than that to win. If Sanders were to win the Democratic nomination, he would have an enthusiastic base, but many in the center would not vote for him. They also might not vote for Trump in large numbers. If Biden were to win, he would not have an enthusiastic base supporting him, but he would have the votes of all who dislike Trump, which is sizeable. The betting of the Democratic establishment and primary voters is that Biden has the best chance to beat Trump.

Trump would probably prefer to run against Sanders, whom the Republicans would portray as a dangerous socialist and point to communist regimes as illustrating the danger. This would be unfair to his positions and what he could conceivably get enacted by Congress, but it could work. With Biden, the Republicans are going to point to his gaffes and hint that age has taken a sufficient toll on Biden that he should not be President. It is not clear that strategy will work.

Democrats need to more forcefully discuss Trump’s unsavory business history than did Hillary Clinton’s overly confident campaign. They also need to criticize his record as President, including the inhumane treatment of people trying to enter the country, tax policies slanted to the rich, attempts to repeal the ACA, a muddled foreign policy, disastrous environmental policies, and arguably illegal uses of his office to further his political and financial interests.

It will be a dirty and hard-fought campaign.